The Coming Technological Singularity, A Most Important and Potentially Dangerous Thing Part 1
There is a great deal of discussion at this time about the singularity. The singularity, in a basic way is a coming together of a number of variables, and the coming together of these variables creates such an assembly of mass and structure, that a new state is achieved, a quantum jump is forced to occur. Often times this new state is described as a point of infinite or near infinite value, because in many ways, this new point, this singularity achieved, is sort of like a new door that opens up to a new dimension of possible action.
When it comes to the future of scientific and technical human knowledge, the singularity is seen as a point where the progress of this technology attains a critical mass. A point within a linear time frame where human technology hits a peak, that it is not able to go beyond, without a radical change in the nature of that technology.
You can think of this sort of like a long and thin web stretching across space. Each strand on the web could represent a different form of technology type, or more accurately, a different mental discipline and science, that leads to the development of both subjective knowledge and objectively physical instruments and apparatus, that allow for better manipulation of the human world along certain lines.
As this web of technological types stretches across time, all of the different strands within this web are forced together in a way, due to those same laws that humanity is trying to overcome, manipulate, and work with; those laws that represent the physics, the physical laws, of this human space time existence.
As these strands begin to converge at a future point in space and time, they are drawn towards that culmination, so that they will not be able to advance any further without colliding into each other, and into their own deficiencies. And because of the power inherent in each of these strands, being that each strand on the web contains within it a type of forward inertia, creates an inescapable point of collision, an explosion really, sort of like a number of trains all colliding as they converge onto one point.
The only possible way to continue past this convergence point, is the creation of a whole new kind of track, or tracks, where these new technological disciplines may continue, but only through some kind of extremely radical change. And this new track, or tracks, can only be created through the force of that collision. It is this explosion that creates the propellant force necessary to allow humanity, in one way or another, to find a whole new way to advance technologically.
Now; as I have mentioned, there are many ways to see the progression and the culmination of this technological singularity. One that is often mentioned is the processing power of computers and Moore’s law. This law states that the overall processing power of computers, will double every two years.
And as this particular track or strand, on that web that I talked about earlier, moves along through time, we can see that computer processing speeds must eventually hit a terminal point. A point at which, through the power of geometric, or compounding growth, a computer’s processing speed cannot be doubled any more.
This is so for a couple of reasons;
-The first is that the technology of it all, that is the electronics of trying to create a faster and faster computer, through transistor size and speed, is hitting a barrier that is getting harder and harder to overcome.
-The second is that, even if processing speeds were to continue like this, there would come a point where we humans, could not really take advantage of this ever growing speed, without some kind of new technology, to be able to use this amazingly fast processing power for our benefit. A kind of catch 22 really.
And so, at this terminal point, at this singularity, it is quite natural to ask, what happens next? If there is no radical advancement in the technologies responsible for this processing speed, then what happens next?
Well, if left by itself, that is if we were just talking about computer processing speeds and nothing else, then it might just be the case that this technology could hit a true dead end. But nothing in this world exists in isolation, and so the processing speed of computers is not just an electronics, or a computer chip issue. It is a holistic issue involving all technology, and as we may explore in later videos, it is a cog-nation issue, that directly relates to the foundational cog-nation perspectives, that form the basis of human knowledge, the basis of how we interpret, perceive, and work with past, present, and future causal relationships.
Another track, or set of tracks in this singularity web, can be explored when we contemplate the doubling of the total of human knowledge. Just like the processing speed of computers, the amount of knowledge available to humanity in general is doubling. As of the making of this video, I have found it hard to find information on just how fast knowledge is doubling right now. All I can say is that Buck-minster Fuller introduced the concept of this doubling in 1982, and at that time the rough estimate was something like one to two years for all knowledge on Earth to double. But I have found current estimates, for the doubling of worldly knowledge, hard to find, and this may be due to the fact that estimating the amount of information input and output, through just the internet of things for example, could be a quite difficult thing to measure, because this web of knowledge has grown and is growing so much every day.
But if we narrow the scope of this measurement, measuring the doubling of just medical knowledge for example, these calculations can be a little easier to plot, and can give us a jaw dropping set of figures to contemplate. Using a 2011 study by the American Clinical and Climatological Association, called, Challenges and Opportunities Facing Medical Education, by Peter Dense, MD, we are told that; it is estimated that the doubling time of medical knowledge in 1950 was 50 years; in 1980, 7 years; in 2010, 3.5 years. And in 2020 it is projected to be 0.2 years—just 73 days.
Incredible really! By 2020 medical knowledge is projected to double every 73 days!
And as this knowledge singularity moves along the human timeline into the future, we are confronted by an intermingling of technology and knowledge. And remember, that this web of forward moving technology is interconnected, and that this web propels us into a potential future, a singularity point, where this doubling can’t continue any further. At least not without a radical change, a quantum leap. And this quantum leap seems to be drawing us very very quickly, and relentlessly, into an emerging technology called,
While some people speak of the possible threat to humanity by an artificial intelligence, the possibility of a super machine intelligence annihilating us perhaps, few contemplate the implications that such artificial intelligence might pose to our spiritual evolution, and to our freedom.
But you may ask, as many have asked throughout history, why is humanity in this seemingly self-destructive spiral? Why is it that humanity always seems to take two steps back for every half step forward?
If you would like to know the reasons for this self-destructive spiral in a more comprehensive manner, and most importantly, how to overcome this problem,
I recommend the book,